Since I am home sick today, I have plenty of time to waste on my next division, the AFC South. The Colts were weakened substantially this offseason, the Jags need to prove themselves this year, the Titans should be trying to convince everyone they were not a fluke at the end of the year last year, and the Texans I think could be a surprise team at the end of the year. I think the fight between the top 2 could be much tighter this year, and I expect the third team to also put up a fight in the wild card.
1. Indianapolis Colts
What's To Like: Well, let's see here, they still have Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Dallas Clark, the foundations of a passing attack that is (almost indisputably) the best in the NFL on a yearly basis. Peyton Manning is probably the best quarterback in the league right now, and I don't expect him to ease off now that he has won a championship. Joseph Addai proved by the end of the year that he could be their number 1 back, and looks like he could have a great future with the team. Dwight Freeney is coming back after a monster year, helping boost the number 2 pass defense. They have a strong, smart corps of safeties with Bob Sanders and Bethea, and if they can stay healthy, they could both have huge years. The Colts are a sure bet to have a dynomite offense like in past years, and that, along with their coaching, is almost enough to ensure a playoff spot for them on a yearly basis.
What's Not To Like: In my opinion, a lot, for a team that just won the Super Bowl. They lost their Pro Bowl left tackle, Tarik Glenn, to retirement, so Peyton Manning now has rookie Tony Ugoh defending his blind side in a season where the Colts will face the likes of: Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Amobi Okoye, Terrell Suggs, and Shawne Merriman, among others. The Colts are lacking a true second running back, so if anything happens to Addai, someone very unproven will be stepping in there. It seems unlikely that Bob Sanders will be able to play for the entire year considering the manner in which he plays and the fact that he is coming off a serious knee injury, and if he is not there, the pass defense and rush defense will feel his absence. They lost both starting cornerbacks, and will now have to turn to two unproven players at that position. And, they also lost Cato June, one of their top playmakers on defense, and their best linebacker.
Betting Lines: 7/1 to win it all, 9/2 to win the AFC, 1/3 to win the South.
Final Outlook: The Colts last year, to some extent, were one of the feel-good, everyone happy type stories. Peyton Manning got his ring, Tony Dungy got some of the credit they deserved, and the suck-ass Bears didn't win. However, going into this season, I think the Colts have been weakened by this offseason. The departure of June, David, Harper, Glenn, and Rhodes leaves question marks at a number of positions. Everyone says in sports that the hardest thing to do is to repeat as champions, and despite all that the Colts having going for them, I really can't see it happening. I think they are going to slide back a little into the team that they were in previous years, a team with a great offense, but a mediocre defense, that ultimately leaves them vulnerable once the playoffs roles along. Also, one or two injuries, and this team could be looking at a dogfight with the Jags for first. I see them finishing about 11-5, as they have a few tough games in there.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
What's to Like: The fact that this team, honestly, as a shitload to prove this season in my opinion. Byron Leftwich has to prove that he can be the undisputed leader of this team for an entire season, and since this guy has been a soldier before, I think he's gonna prove himself to be up to the task. Their running back corps is extremly solid with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and with Drew in his second season expect him to have more carries, which I think will benefit both players. Coach Jack Del Rio has made it clear to the wide receivers that they have to improve this year or possibly find new horizons, so I expect a couple of guys to step up to the challenge. The team is enormously gifted on both sides of the trenches, and they have proven consistently that they can both run the ball, and stop the run. They have the best defensive tackle tandem in the business with Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, both of whom are beasts against the run, and strong and tall enought to disrupt the passing attack. A number of players are coming back from injury, including MLB Mike Peterson, and they should be in the top 5 defenses, like they were last year. I also really like their addition of 1st round pick Reggie Nelson at safety, and I think he could be a candidate for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Lastly, the Jags are pretty well coached, and are almost impossible to beat on their home field, and I think this year they are a team that is gonna play hard and punish every other team they play.
What's Not To Like: A lot of the stuff that this team has to prove is a result of things that are not to like. Byron Leftwich seems to get hurt almost every year, along with Fred Taylor, and at least one of their defensive tackles, so a number of players need to stay healthy for long stretches of time, which has not been their forte. Their wide receiving corps is a question mark for a reason, as no one has stepped up and claimed a starting role or playmaking role for himself. The team also lost both of their starting safeties from last season and both their replacements are young, so they may suffer from undisciplined play at those positions. Also, the question about Jags has never been about talent, but whether they can put it together for an entire season, and honestly they have yet to prove that, and the expectations are there for this season.
Betting Lines: 30/1 to win it all, 15/1 to win the AFC, 3/1 to win the South (I think that could be worth taking).
Final Outlook: The Jags to me this year, somewhat remind me of the Bengals who took the AFC South from the Steelers in 2005, only to lose as a result of the injury to Carson Palmer. I think the Jaguars team this year has the ability to upset the Colts, and I was honestly very tempted to take them over the Colts. I think they are undoubtably a playoff team, and despite the fact that I have the Colts finishing above them in the regular season, I think they could go deep into the playoffs this year. If they get consistent play at the QB position all year from Byron Leftwich and the team remains healthy, I could see them finishing at around the 10-6 mark, and really challenging the Colts for the South. However, if these things do not work out, they might end up being the same old 8-8 team they were last year. Expect the former.
3. Houston Texans
The Texans you say, but what about Vince Young and the Titans? Nonsense I say, as I think the Texans will surprise everyone with a solid season and loads of improvement on last season.
What's To Like: I'm sure at this point the Falcons are regretting giving up Matt Schaub, and for me, I expect the youngster to have a solid year with the Texans. He was always a consistent performer and well liked by the Falcons staff, and I think he has the potential to become a solid, if unspectacular QB in the NFL much like say a Trent Green. Ahman Green is no Reggie Bush, but he is still and upgrade over the likes of Wali Lundy and Ron Dayne, so while their rushing attack still may lack potency, it should be slightly more solid than last year. Andre Johnson is one of the most underrated playmakers at the Wide Receiver positions and is likely good for 1,000+ yards on a yearly basis. The Defensive Line has loads of potential with the likes of Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams, the latter of whom I expect to have a very good year this year. DeMeco Ryans may be the best young MLB in the game and should anchor this defense again this year. And Dunta Robinson is emerging into a very, very good cornerback.
What's Not To Like: The Texans are not particularily strong or deep on either side of the line, and after David Carr set all sorts of records for sacks suffered, the front office has not done enough to ensure the protection of Matt Schaub. Defensively, the group may have potential, but they remain small and inexperience, and could be very vulnerable against the run, possibly finishing worse than their 20th place finish last year. The running back corps remains a question mark, as Ahman Green is over 30 and definately is past his prime, and the backups behind him (who will definitely need to fit in somewhere in the equation) are weak players. Also, aside from Andre Johnson, the team is lacking in receiving playmakers, as an old Keenan McCardell is supposed to be seen as an upgrade at that position. I am also not entirely sold on Gary Kubiak and the rest of the coaching staff, and I think this team might be a lot better off with a more experienced veteran at the coaching helm.
Betting Lines: 100/1 to win it all, 50/1 to win the AFC, 12/1 to win the South.
Final Outlook: I don't know why, but I have this gut feeling on these guys as well to be a sleeper team that challenges for a playoff spot this year, much like the Titans did last year. I've always thought Matt Schaub would be a good player, and I think now, in this situation, he will thrive. I also think their defense could come out and really be something this year despite its youth and the question marks at a couple of positions, and really take the league by storm to some extent. I see them finish right around .500, with marked improvement in a number of areas, and I think with the addition of a playmaking running back and wide receiver in the next couple years, that this team might have a chance competing for a playoff spot.
4. Tennessee Titans
What's To Like: VY hasn't even played a full year at QB in the NFL, but has already proven himself to be a winner, just like in college. I mean, the guy is capable of truly amazing things, and is the best playmaker on the offensive side of the ball for that obvious reason. Their offensive line is solid, as proven by the rushing total of Travis Henry last year, so Young should have plenty of time to throw, space to run in, and Chris Brown should have success as well. They also have some playmakers defensively in Keith Bulluck and Nick Harper, two very solid NFL players. Also, Jeff Fisher remains a very good head coach, and with him and Norm Chow at the helm offensively, this team could be potent around VY.
What's Not To Like: A whole hell of a lot. VY is on the cover of Madden, and while I am not a religious person, there are some jinxes that are a little too suspicious for me. Their starting running back is Chris Brown (barf), and their starting wide receivers are Roydell Williams and Brandon Jones. I honestly have NEVER heard of either of these players. They lost their top defensive playmaker because he seems to be somewhat of a psychopath and enjoys making it rain on women, and their best defensive line player proved he was a psychopath last year by stepping of someone elses face. Oh yeah, and did I mention the Madden Curse and the fact that their backup is none other than Kerry Collins?
Betting Lines: 60/1 to win it all, 22/1 to win the AFC (waaay to low), and 15/2 to win the South.
Final Outlook: This team has a lot of things not going for them. They have no offensive playmakers aside from their quarterback who is on the cover of Madden, and they lost their top defensive playmaker for the entire season. I honestly think that they might really really suck this year. I mean, I could see them finishing at 3-13 considering they play good teams and a couple other shit ones, but i think their record might not reflect how bad they are considering they have VY, who will single handedly win them probably two games. So I say 5-11 is more realistic, despite how lacking in talent and explosiveness they are.
