2008 MLB Draft

Three or even two years ago, doing a mock draft for the MLB Draft would be a joke post. Not because it would be impossible to predict the first round, but more because it usually takes draft picks a few years in the minors before they even emerge on the Major League scene. Recently, especially with college hitters and pitchers, the term fast-riser has been thrown around, and some players such as Ryan Zimmerman and Tim Lincecum have made considerable impacts on the Major League level within a year of being drafted. Some people believe David Price, the number 1 overall pick in last years draft, may do the same this year even though he is currently experiencing a run of poor performances in A ball. Combine these fast-risers with the changing free-agent scene, and the draft seems to have become more important in the last few years. ESPN has taken notice. Last year they ran a live broadcast of the entire first round and this year the are covering the draft from 2-9pm on the first day and 11:30am until the end on the second day. Now to me, the first round is the only one worth predicting. These are the players everyone expects to make an impact and everyone has been watching for some time. So here are my predictions for the first round. It’s a long read but it will get less detailed after the first ten picks.

1.Tampa Bay Rays: Buster Posey, C FSU
I can't remember a year (read: exaggeration) when Tampa hasn't had the first pick. Everyone loves them this year but with their run of high picks they would have to be complete morons to have not gotten at least a little better in the last few years. Now they have one of the best minor league systems in the league and a couple of very good players on the verge of becoming real stars in the game. Amazingly, even though they have first pick, I don't think they are going to pick based on best player available. For them it is either Posey or Beckham, based on organizational lead. They have potentially Reid Brignac at shortstop and no one at catcher so I see them going with Posey. Posey is an impressive athlete who was the Seminoles starting shortstop his freshman year who switched over to catcher because the team needed him there more. He's still a little green defensively but most people think with a little more work he's a potential gold glove who can hit above .300. He has a cannon too. He's the closer for the Seminoles and features a fastball of 93 to 96. The only hole people find in him is a lack of plus power. I think that's OK since he's a catcher and catchers aren't usually known for their power. Think Joe Mauer with a little more power and a little less average.

2.Pittsburgh Pirates: Tim Beckham, SS HS
This pick is tough to predict. I think they'll take Beckham because they need a high potential player and it is not like their offense is one hitter away from being a playoff team. Beckham is the best athlete in the draft, a poor-man's Justin Upton with the bat (considerably less power) and a much better defender. A lot of people have him falling to the Giants, which HungryforTacos would love (he's black and fast) but I don't know how much I would like that. Yes, he's a great athlete, and we could really use a shortstop, but he's never shown real power with the bat even though he has fast hands. That scares me and makes him seem like a bit of risk for an organization like the Giants that sucks at developing hitters. Still, he's a nearly five-tool potential and if his power develops (which some scouts say it may because of his lightening quick hands) then you have the potential for a Justin Upton that can actually play middle infield.

3. Kansas City Royals: Brian Matusz, LHP University of San Diego
Solid, three-pitch lefty who has a high ceiling and could be a fast-riser. Extremely polished, good control, gets plenty of strikeouts. A safe pick at the least with a ceiling around Cole Hamels. I like him a lot from the few videos I've seen. The Royals need more young pitchers, although they may go with Alvarez here which would piss me off so much. They already have a lefty-hitting third baseman that is sick. They don't need another one. Assholes.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Gordon Beckham, SS University of Georgia
This is a wild-card pick here because most people have the Orioles looking for a pitcher to replace Bedard. But if Matusz is off the board, the next best is Aaron Crow who was absolutely disgusting to start the season with 43 scoreless innings in a row but he's had some back problems and mechanical issues since then so I think he's going to fall out of the top five. The other Beckham is white and may not be athletic enough to stick at SS on the major league level. Still, I love his bat (no homo). He hits for real power and average already (.402 and 22) and seems very polished. I imagine he could rise very quickly through the minor leagues. If anything, it sounds like scouts think he might focus a bit too much on power and they think he should try for a more line-drive swing. I would also like it if the Giants drafted him.

5. San Francisco Giants: Pedro Alvarez, 3B Vanderbilt
Let me first say I know it is really unlikely that Alvarez falls to number five. I'm just hoping his injury concerns (broke his hand at the beginning of the year) and subsequent lower than normal numbers scare off some teams. Also he's a Scott Boras guy, so that may count out the Pirates and the Orioles. The Giants could not ask for anything more than getting Alvarez with the fifth pick. He's a lefty-hitting third baseman with plus-plus power and an ability to hit for average. The only negative thing I've heard about his swing is his high strikeout totals. I think that is OK because a) as long as he hits for average it shouldn't make much of a difference and b) that may be a result of his injured hand this year. To top it off, most people think he's the most Major League ready of all the potential prospects because of his bat and defense. He would be perfect for the Giants in both the category of Best Player Available and Organization Need. I just have this wonderful image in my brain that has Angel batting third in 2011 backed up by Alvarez batting fourth. Devastating power right there, similar to Bonds and Williams in the 90s. If they don't get Alvarez, I think the Giants go with Justin Smoak, a first baseman from South Carolina. He's a switch-hitting first baseman with as much power as Alvarez and maybe a better potential average hitter. Sounds a lot like Mark Texiera to me. The only reason I like Alvarez better is that Smoak is stuck at first. He's not athletic and it would be very difficult to move him to the outfield with his thick, unathletic legs. So, even if Angel is a ways off, it scares me having a player such as Smoak potentially blocking Angel's rise to the majors. Still, I would be happy if we got either Smoak or Alvarez. Both are fast-rising power bats, which is exactly what the Giants need. I really don't want us to draft a pitcher. We have plenty of young pitchers and no young hitters.

6. Florida Marlins: Aaron Crow, RHP University of Missouri
I’ve talked about him a bit before so I’ll be brief. Some people have the Marlins going with a high-risk, high-reward high school bat like Skipworth but if Crow falls to sixth I think the Marlins will take him. They need a pitcher bad. Real bad. Big guy, big fastball. Plus curveball. He made need to make some mechanical adjustments but I still see him as a nearly MLB ready pitcher. A bit like Greg Jennings.

7. Cincinnati Reds: Kyle Skipworth, C HS
Here’s the high-risk, high-reward player that always goes at the top of the draft. Not everyone is sure that Skipworth can stick at Catcher, but most really like his bat. He had a hit in 18 straight plate appearances, impressive given the fact that he apparently plays in a difficult HS league. Some people have called him the best HS catcher since Mauer, I’d say his ceiling is Victor Martinez but I don’t think he stays at catcher. He’s really good, though.

8. Chicago White Sox: Brett Wallace, 3B/1B Arizona State
This guy is nasty. I really don’t get how people have Hosmer, Alonso, and Smoak over him. I think Smoak has an edge because of his power but Wallace won the Triple Crown in the Pac-10 for the second year in a row. Most people think he’ll always be able to hit for average but some people put him at a ceiling of around 25 homeruns per year. I expect more. He does have a quick, short swing but his legs are tree trunks (some people think he’s really fat) and they supply a significant amount of power. Apparently the White Sox are the only ones that really love him, though, so I see him landing here.

9. Washington Nationals: Eric Hosmer, 1B HS
The consensus best bat in high school hasn’t wowed me to be honest. This is a first base heavy class and I’ve read a few reports that say Hosmer has the highest ceiling. But the only thing every scout says is that his bat is mature well beyond his age. I just don’t see it. I’m worried the Giants will pick him. And he’s another Boras guy.

10. Houston Astros: Shooter Hunt, RHP Tulane
The Astros need a pitcher bad and Shooter may be the best available after Crow and Matusz are gone. A month ago it would have been Tanner Scheppers but injury concerns have pretty much dropped him out of the first round. Shooter just sounds like a Texas player and he’s been a quality college starter so far. A safe pick for sure. If Skipworth gets past the Reds or Marlins, though, they may take him here.

11. Texas Rangers: Justin Smoak, 1B University of South Carolina
I’ve already talked about him a lot in the Giants section so I won’t say much. I don’t actually see him falling this far, though.

12. Oakland Athletics: Yonder Alonso, 1B University of Miami
This seems like the perfect A’s pick. He walks a bunch, rarely strikes out, doesn’t have much power (projects around 20-25 a year at best) but can really hit for average. Good opposite field hitter, too. Miami hitters have a good track record, though, with Ryan Braun being the most recent example.

13. St. Louis Cardinals: Jason Castro, C Stanford University
They may go with a high school bat here, but I think Castro is the safe pick. He’s definitely been overvalued by the fact that he’s a catcher, but Castro can still really hit for average and some power. I think he could be a 15 homeruns a season guy with a nearly .300 average. He hit really well in Cape Cod this past summer and has been the best Cardinal player this year. And he’s an SAE. SAE Stanford catchers have good track records. Yay Ryan Garko. (Also, I just know I’m going to see this comment in the comment section so I’m going to put it in before you guys get the opportunity: The only Stanford player selected in the first round would be named Castro. HAHAHAH. GAY. DURR STANFORD. DUrRR RJAY.)

14. Minnesota Twins: Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF HS
This year’s class if very thin on outfielders and Hicks may have the most potential of all of them. He hit .500 with 32 steals and 4 homerun his senior year. Those are some scary numbers. Another HungryforTacos potential prodigy. And he’s from Long Beach. He is also a potential pitcher with a cannon of an arm but he’s still really raw. I heard a rumor the Giants really like him too. He is sick, but he needs a lot of work before he’s Major League ready and I just don’t think we have the ability to develop a player like him. The Twins may also go with a college arm here.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers: Zach Collier, OF HS
The Dodgers would love to have Hicks fall to them but I think they’ll settle for Collier. More power and polish than Hicks, but not as athletic. Very good though. With the Dodgers ability to develop talent I expect him to be a future major-leaguer.

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Joshua Fields, RHP Georgia
The best closer in the draft and he is definitely ready for the major leagues. Not too much to say about him just that he’s been solid so far in his senior season. 47 strikeouts in only 25 innings, with 15 saves. Another safe, but necessary pick.

17. Toronto Blue Jays: Ethan Martin, RHP/3B HS
Until last year, the Blue Jays seemed focus on safe, college-productive players. But now their farm system is about as bad as it gets, and they really need high-potential players. Martin fits that bill. He hit .528 with 12 Homeruns in his senior season. Very good numbers. High-risk, high-reward and you have to wonder if the Blue Jays could develop him. Therefore, they may go with Conor Gillaspie, third baseman for Wichita St. It is also worth noting some people have Martin as more of pitching prospect than hitting. He has 112 strikeouts in 60 innings pitched. Jesus.

18. New York Mets: Christian Friedrich, LHP Eastern Kentucky
The Mets will be very happy if Friedrich falls this far. He’s the best college arm after Crow, Matusz and Hunt. But, I feel like the only team before the Mets that would want him would be the Cardinals. Another big guy with high strikeout totals.

19. Chicago Cubs: Casey Kelly, RHP/SS HS
I like this guy a lot. Another great athlete. Like Martin, though, some people have him as more of a pitching prospect than hitting. He’s hitting .473 with 5 homeruns but is also 8-1 with a 1.16 ERA in a tough HS league. Apparently he would rather be a SS. A big project, but one the Cubs would be willing to undertake.

20. Seattle Mariners: Gerrit Cole, RHP HS
Some people have them taking Melville, but he has fallen off to me in recent weeks. His 3.00 ERA in high school is terrible for a major league prospect especially compared to Cole’s .60 ERA. 94 Strikeouts in 58 innings is nice too. Only problem is Boras and a “high-stressful” delivery.

21. Detroit Tigers: Jemile Weeks, 2B Miami
The Tigers would love for Hosmer to fall all the way to them at 21 because of money demands. They are always eager to sign big-money players out of slot. But I just don’t see that happening as too many people like Hosmer. They might go with a HS pitcher like Cole or Melville, but they already have Porcello working his way up their system. This may be a bit early for Rickie’s younger brother to go but I really like him. He’s about the same as his brother, just with less power projections. A good, safe pick though to me.

22. New York Mets: Anthony Hewitt, SS HS
Some people think he’s a better athlete than Beckham. A real project but with a lot of potential. He goes to Salisbury HS in Connecticut (where Andrew Dunlevy went), which means he’s retarded. Good numbers though. .538BA and 8HRs.

23. San Diego Padres: Ike Davis, 1B/OF Arizona State
Another good ASU player. Plays first base now but he could probably easily make the move to outfield. Pretty good speed, average power, and good contact hitter. Safe pick for the padres.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: Destin Hood, OF HS
I think they would love Hewitt to fall but I think they’ll have to settle for Hood. Another great athlete but another project. High-risk and high-reward. Another HungryforTacos classic.

25. Colorado Rockies: Andrew Cashner, RHP Texas Christian
The next best college closer. Some people expect him to go earlier. The Rockies are still having problems solving their closer situation as Corpas wasn’t successful. A fast rising closer makes sense to them.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Connor Gillaspie, 3B Wichita State
The Diamondbacks love Cole but he may not be here. So they may go with another college star because they have a good track record with them. Reese Havens may be in play here, too.

27. Minnesota Twins: Brett Lawrie, OF/IF HS
Doesn’t have a position, but this Canadian apparently has a real, high-ceiling bat. He’s from Canada so I just feel like he makes sense for the Twins.

28. New York Yankees: Brett Devall, LHP HS
I’ve heard they really want a LHP so Devall would make sense. His numbers are outstanding. 140 strikeouts and a .41 ERA. Impressive. Don’t know much about him, though.

29. Cleveland Indians: Ryan Perry, RHP Arizona
Apparently he’s a fast track reliever and that’s what the Indians do need. But his numbers (3.35 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 60 innings) don’t impress me. Still, he’s the highest rated left.

30. Boston Red Sox: Reese Havens, SS South Carolina
Apparently, three years ago Boston wanted Reese, but took Ellsbury over him because of worries he wouldn’t sign. Now he’s back and I think they’ll take him again. Numbers are good too. .365 and 14 home runs.

Alright, I know I got a little thin on the descriptions after the first few but I’m tired and I don’t know a ton about players after the first 15 or so. As you can see, the class feels a little thin on pitchers but heavy on first basemen. Not too many outfielders out there, though. I’d be happy if the Giants get (in order): Alvarez, Smoak, Posey, Tim Beckham, Gordon Beckham. Any one of those players would be sick, though. I’m excited. The drafts on the 5th. Hope you guys liked reading.