Saturday, August 11, 2007

Well, Here Goes My Afternoon...


We move east and north from the AFC West at this point to the AFC North, a division that could prove to be one of the most competitive and one of the most challenging in this coming year. There are three teams that seem to be playoff caliber, yet the odds tell us that most likely only two of them will go on. The three teams each have different styles, leading to a very contrasting division. Anyways, we begin.

1. Bodymore Ravens
What's To Like:Well obivously, the top ranked defense which allowed 20 yards per game less than the second place team. Ray Lewis is coming back in what he's saying is the "best shape of his life", and despite the loss of playmaking linebacker Adalius Thomas, the defense still has Ed Reed, Chris McAlister, Bart Scott, and Terrell Suggs. Scott especially broke out last year, and will have even more responsibility with the loss of Thomas. Defensively, there still remains a lot of continuity on this defense, and look for their defense to rank (conservatively) in the top 5 again this year. The QB position no longer remains a point of controversy, as Steve McNair has proven himself repeatedly to be a franchise quarter back. What he's lost in speed over the last couple years he's gained in smarts, so he should lead this offense effectively this year. Willis McGahee is a definite upgrade over Jamal Lewis, so look for the Ravens rushing attack to be more effective this year. Also, with McNair in the system for another year, look for an improved passing attack on last year's performance as the wide receivers and McNair will have gelled better. Also, Jonathan Ogden is supposed to be back for the start of the year, so if he is back the Ravens line will be much stronger.
What's Not To Like:Well the defense is getting older, and a number of playmakers, including Ray Lewis may have lost a step. The loss of Adalius Thomas could prove costly, as the Ravens will need people to step up in a variety of positions to fill the gaps that Thomas has left. Offensively, McNair is always an injury threat, and it seems inevitable that Kyle Boller will have to start a least a couple games this year. McGahee may be an upgrade on Lewis, but he had a down year last year, and still has a lot to prove. And if Ogden is unable to return by the start of the year, look for that to have an effect on both the passing attack and the rushing attack.
Betting Lines: 18/1 to win the Super Bowl, 9/1 to win the AFC, 9/5 to win the North.
Final Outlook: I think the Ravens this year will be a very strong team, and are definately capable of winning the North. However, they remain a couple of injuries away from missing the playoffs. I believe their defense will be able to replace Thomas, and I expect them to be one of the best, if not the best defense in football. I do like the addition of McGahee, and I expect to have a better year this year, and while the passing attack does not seem that strong, I think they'll be around their top half finish this year. There schedule is extremly difficult, as they have to play the Chargers, Patriots and Colts in three consecutive weeks, but i think they'll finish anywhere from 10-6 to 12-4, which should be enough to win this division.

2. Cincinnati Bengals
This team was going to be #1 for me, but honestly, the losses of Chris Henry and Kenny Irons I think are going to prove costly for this ball club, and while I think they have the talent to finish first, I expect them to be a wild card team.
What's To Like:The team had a top 10 offense last year, and honestly, with all their talent at the skill positions, there is little doubt that they should finish there again. Carson Palmer is becoming one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and he should be even better this year, with another year under his belt after his ugly knee injury. Rudi Johnson is an absolute workhorse and is without a doubt good for 1000 yards and a number of touchdowns, and will have to carry the rushing load with the loss of Kenny Irons, the #1 pick for this team this year, and the probable #2 running back. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh remain one of the best tandems at the wide receiver position, and each has the potential to go ways above 1,000 yards. Tab Perry may even be able to fill in at the slot position while Chris Henry is suspended. The defense can only prove on its third-to-last position from last year, and Marvin Lewis is known for his defensive coaching prowess so I expect their defense will be much better.
What's Not To Like: Well let's see, their defense did finish third-from-last last year, and the additions made do not look like they are going to make that much of a difference. The defense really still is lacking playmakers, so they will not match their turnover numbers from two years ago. Offensively, the losses of Kenny Irons and Chris Henry for 8 games, are what ultimately I feel will derail this team. Rudi Johnson took a ton of punishment last year, and was up in the top 5, I believe, in touches, and Irons was supposed to lighten the load for him this year. With that not happening, an injury to Johnson would completly derail this team. The loss of Henry takes away Palmer's third option, and a guy who would pretty much automatically have a good matchup everytime he got on the field. That could slow their passing attack down a bit. Also, the continual suspensions, arrests, and off the field bullshit, translates to on the field disciplinary issues so I don't see this team being disciplined enough or focused enough to take down the Ravens this year. Emphaisis on this year.
Betting Lines: 15/1 to win the Super Bowl, 7/1 to win the AFC, and 3/2 to win the North. They are the favorites, so if you plan on betting, I would say go with the Ravens to get a little more return for your money.
Final Outlook: There is no denying the talent of this Bengals team, but I feel that with all that is going on, they are one year away from overtaking this Ravens team. I truly believe, and I know I am harping on it, that the losses of Irons and Henry will be the doing in of this team, because even if Johnson misses a couple of games, the running attack will be doomed. This team really reminds me of the Colts teams from a few years ago, one of those teams that is going beat most teams by outscoring them, but as we have seen, that can only take you so far if your defense is anemic. I can see them finishing from 9-7 and 11-5, and honestly they could win the division, as they have a much easier schedule than the Ravens, but I think they are prone to dropping their level, and losing to some lesser teams.
(Of all the picks, Michel I expect you to disagree with this one)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers
A team that has the potential to challenge the Ravens and Bengals, but with the change in front office personnel, I expect the Steelers to finish around 8-8 and be really searching for an identity by the end of the year.
What's To Like:Willy Parker is one of the best running backs in the league, and should be good for around 1300 yards per game and a number of scores. Ben Roethlisburger (gay) cannot possibly be any worse than last year without losing his job and reputation, so honestly, while I hate him, he should have a better year than last year. Their offensive line remains strong and as a unit, should give Parker plenty of holes to run through, and Roethlisburger plenty of time to throw picks. I like their wide receiving corps, because I have always been a Hines Ward fan, and I think Santonio Holmes could become a good #2 receiver. Their defense should be very strong this season with Tomlin coming in to the head coaching job, because if he can put Minnesota's defense in the top 10, I think he has the ability to put the Steelers in the top 5. Their rookies have impressed, especially LaMarr Woodley, and he has the potential and talent to be the Defensive ROY this year. Polamalu (gay) is a playmaker, and now is the leader of this defense with the departure of Joey Porter.
What's Not To Like: The departure of Bill Cowher leaves the Steelers with a change in coaching philosiphy for only the second or third time in franchise history and this can only hurt the team, especially on offense. Their offensive line is getting older, and Alan Faneca is leaving after this year, so their offense might struggle. Roethlisburger was honestly one of the worst quarterbacks this past year, and with all the drama surrounding him, another mediocre performance could put the position in controversy towards the end of the year. With the loss of Joey Porter, the team loses a great deal of its attitude, especially defensively, and expect that mean, hard-hitting streak that followed this defense to not be as prevalent this coming year. Also, age may prove to be an issue at a number of positions, and this team does have to play the Ravens and Steelers twice a year.
Betting Lines: 25/1 to win the Super Bowl, 14/1 to win the AFC, 5/2 to win the North.
Final Outlook: The Steelers have a talented team at a number of positions, but the team is undergoing a big change with the departure of Ken Whisenhunt, Russ Grimm, and Bill Cowher, so this is a team really searching for an identity. Are they an offense team built around the run or pass, and are they a 3-4 or Cover 2 defense. These are not easy questions to answer, and will dog the team all year long. Mediocre play at the QB position could prove costly again, and the team really needs Roethlisburger to actually perform for the first time. I see them finishing about .500, probably 7-9 or 8-8.

4. Cleveland Browns
A team that has a couple playmakers, but too much uncertainty and controversy has derailed them year after year, and I expect the same to happen this year.
What's To Like: The main thing to like is the two offensive playmakers: Kellen Winslow Jr. and Braylon Edwards. Both of the players have the potential to be some of the best at their respective positions, and both players physically can absolutely dominate the opposition. Charlie Frye has his moments, and Brady Quinn could be a pro quarterback. Their offensive line is not terrible, and if they can avoid injury, then Jamal Lewis might have a better year than last year. He's apparently looked good in camp which is a good sign. Defensively, Romeo Crennel is a great coach. They have a number of players that I like personally and whom I think can be good players, including Brodney Pool, Leigh Bodden and Andra Davis. They also have loads of potential and talent going into the future, so they might be more fitted to compete in a few years.
What's Not To Like:Really there is a lot to name here, but one of the issues is that the team is constantly stricken by the injury bug, and has not enough talent to deal with injuries to their good players. Crennel has yet to prove himself to be an apt NFL coach, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first coach to be fired this year. A QB controversy never helps, and the fact that Brady Quinn held out for so long and then struggled greatly in his first practices back is not a good sign. Jamal Lewis is not that great of an upgrade over Ruben Droughnes, so their offense will likely struggle. Defensively they were in the bottom 10, and did little to improve on that this offseason, so this is a team that honestly is in big trouble this coming year.
Betting Lines: 125/1 to win the Super Bowl-the worst of any team, 50/1 to win the AFC, 7/1 to win the North.
Final Outlook: This is a team with a lack of talent, not a great coaching staff, and that plays in a very difficult division. They have gone 1-11 over the past two years in their division which never bodes well, and I don't think that will change greatly next year. They have questions at the QB position, and if Brady Quinn is the franchise, he will probably start at some point, meaning he and the team will struggle greatly. This team is finish 4-12 at best in my book, and is picking Darrent McFadden somewhere in the top 5 or even the top 3 next year.

2 comments:

Widukind said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Widukind said...

I read this a while ago but work is boring so...
I agree that the Ravens will win the division. I don't really get the idea that Steve McNair "has proven himself repatedly to be a franchise quarterback". He's only been on two teams. I bet you hate me right now.
The Bengals offense is going to be insane again, and I don't think the loss of Irons is that terrible. Chris Perry is OK if he ever gets healthy *big if), and I didn't really expect Irons to be all that phenomenal as a rookie. I've always liked Johnson, and hope he doesn't get hurt.
And my name is Michael, not Michel. wtf.
Steelers suck Browns suck.